longer, lower
8500 securities listed on the nyse, nasdaq, and amex. 83% under 50 and 200 day moving averages. high yield bonds at 9.5% from a low of 4 %. the ten year at 3.83% from a low of .55%
sp 500 fed balance sheet gdp trillion
lehman 1026 $1 trillion (2008) 7% $14
pandemic 2100 $4 trillion (2019) 24% $21.4
2022 peak 5561 $8.8 trillion (2022) 35% $23 trillion
sp 500 prices have tracked the fed balance sheet at a rate of about .6 over 14 years. the fed balance sheet expanded by 9 and the index expanded by 5.
if the fed balance sheet is reduced to $4 trillion by 2027 (chart provided by Van Guard Advisors) that would imply a reduction of 50% in the balance sheet and in theory a 30% reduction in the value of the index before considering the reduction in earnings multiples and market cap to gdp.
the fed balance sheet has not started to reduce yet. from a starting point of 3700 the target range for the sp 500 would be 2590
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