longer, lower

longer, lower

8500 securities listed on the nyse, nasdaq, and amex. 83% under 50 and 200 day moving averages. high yield bonds at 9.5% from a low of  4 %.  the ten year at 3.83% from a low of .55%

                               sp 500         fed balance sheet                  gdp trillion

 lehman       1026                $1 trillion   (2008)                         7% $14 

 pandemic    2100               $4 trillion   (2019)                       24% $21.4 

 2022 peak   5561               $8.8 trillion (2022)                     35% $23 trillion

sp 500 prices have tracked the fed balance sheet at a rate of about .6 over 14 years. the fed balance sheet expanded by 9 and the index expanded by 5. 

if the fed balance sheet is reduced to $4 trillion by 2027 (chart provided by Van Guard Advisors) that would imply a reduction of 50% in the balance sheet and in theory a 30% reduction in the value of the index before considering the reduction in earnings multiples and market cap to gdp. 

the fed balance sheet has not started to reduce yet. from a starting point of 3700 the target range for the sp 500 would be 2590

japanese government keeping rates at .25 at the expense of the currency.