rio

the next cycle

mc 1.07 airlines

mc 1.87 aero manufacturer

sid 8.97 steel

cmc 3.8 utilities

mc 8.32 steel

mc 44 oil, gas

mc 89 mining

mc 43 beer

 

no bids

chief product officer sold $2 million. mc 24. trading 40x revenue

insiders in flight, $200 million, 25 x revenue

 

bailing

 Extended the credit line in amount and maturity Insiders selling with abandon. $400 million of goodwill (5% of market cap) from buying the chairman's brother's management contracts seeping out the commode vent.

mc 8.67

ramble on

mc 469 plus 40 mm buyback announced

mc 59 logistics

 

sprinkles

mc 865 sf 41

mc 314 sf 25

mc 1 sf 16

 

shadow dancing

mc 975 sf 15

mc 2.35 sf 25

mc 64 sf 21

mc 6.53 sf 17

mc 4.85 sf 15

mc 3.78 sf 18

mc 4.39 sf 18 silver lake converted 600 mm debt at 14

mc 238 sf 71

 

heavy jumbo

mc 2.22 shorts 41 %

mc 192 shorts 38%

 

stabilized earnings

Beware the Ides of buying the chairman's brother's real estate business and the elevated thinking that comes with it.

The twenty analysts that followed the stock offered the critical equivalent of the wave. The fancy math of what to pay for imagined future earnings coined a new phrase, stabilized earnings, that raised curiosity in what the multiple might be for unstabilized earnings, thinking a lot because the variance would be greater, or no earnings.

The buyer in 2018 admitted to using $500 million of shareholders money to pay 12 times stabilized 2021 earnings for management contracts from the executive chairman's brother without mentioning the relationship to, say, Melvin Capital Management, 9% shareholder, or any that may find the time to browse SEC 8k filings over coffee. The $500 million was one-third free cash flow for the year supplemented by selling real estate and the other $1 billion went to buyback shares.

The acquisition came along with contracts to manage rooms, promised contracts to managed rooms that did not materialize, and no real estate. The cost of the integration would be $20 million with management plebes skilled at running escapes for conspicuous consumers to be elevated over company lifers. The $20 million was considered a bargain because management believed that the addition to earnings would be $25 million in the first year. Naturally.

The accounting for goodwill, paying too much and getting too little, started with the first quarterly reports. The brother who sold ended up with $500 million and promised to never to enter the hotel management business again getting legal advice from another relation who is paid $5 million a year for expertise that delivered the phrase stabilized earnings to financial dictionaries.

The CEO seems an affable alumnus of First Boston who has been caretaker of the founding families financial interests for seventeen years, shepherded the public offering ten years ago and appears to be planning a sojourn to balmy climes financed by the $10 million in stock that he has sold in the last quarter to Wellington, Blackrock, and Vanguard, the last big buyers in.

amc

Thinking about 8 million screens, 376 million customers, and $5 billion in revenue in the last good year is a reminder of the magic of cinema. The Wanda’s paid $2.6 billion for the adventure in 2012. Today the model is available for a modest premium, $3 billion. The Wanda’s own 60 of the 338 million shares, Susquehanna, Blackrock, and Vanguard picked up 6 million shares in the Dec 2020 quarter, and 20% of the float, 56 million shares are bets against.

solo

The answer to the EV question is China something whether raw material supply chain for batteries or manufacturing.  A Canadian company manufacturing in China with stylish Italian designers and dealerships in balmy US states sports a market cap of $500 million, enough at the money financing to keep the lights on, and Invesco in for 12%. That pesky China 301 list adds 25% to a sticker price of $18,500 but as the wind or Ukrainian ground-based anti-ship missiles blow stickers have been known to change. Can't resist the symbol or the car

wagers

the barons are leaving the manor born and in some cases wagering against it

there is always the movies

mcap 3.1 bn price to sales 1.00 shorts at 17%

elevators

mc 453

 

mc 7.52

mc 19 sf 11

mc 1.65 sf 32

mc 352

'

mc 486

mc 5.97

mc 176

mc 743

mc 1.31

the undertow

                                           the undertow strengthens. insurance before the storm.

ryogaesho

The Dojima Rice Exchange established in 1697 elevated merchants, ryogaesho, in Samurai commerce to barter rice received by the Samurai for services rendered to the Shogunate. 

A testament to the commercial acumen of the ryogaesho is that they lived at the tip of the Samurai sword and prospered through famine and the rice to coin debasement of the mid 1700's. 

Gifts of the ryogaesho are candlestick charts that measure the intention of crowds which others, Mr Elliot (1925), and Mr Dennis (1983), supplemented with fancy names like waves and turtles. 

The first wave, the impulse wave, is the marker in price, time, and range. 

The second wave is the first round of sobriety. 

The third wave is the party. 

A few

mc 866

mc 3.22