Thursday, July 23, 2020

confession, absolution, repentance

The friendly skies had little to do with a $15 billion reduction capital expenditure, 41,000 employees taking early retirement, and 150 planes looking for overnight parking. 

Income statements were not dressed for the cotillion, unsavory accounting not converted from expense to capital expenditure nor, perish the thought, were interest rate hedges market to a model of consciousness from yoga class.

No, just the absolute and outright collapse of global aggregate demand for which management could claim only to be the deer in what was behind the headlights. The daily burn is $30 million down from $100 million, the fewer planes in the air were 42% loaded, and revenue was better than expected at $1.62 billion.

The fancy math is that the business model trades at $6.25 billion against annualized revenue of about the same number or one times revenue that is 80% lower than the year before. Shorts have a 34% bet on the zero bound that traded at a $20 billion market cap in March.

So the sellers are in. The numbers can be handicapped through financial statements. And the Central bank of Robin Hood loves a story that has been banned from theaters in Nebraska because it is so far down it looks like up.


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