squeezable nuggets

mc 1.09

mc 329 sf 16

mc 433 sf 20

mc 406 sf 17

mc 826 space

no joy in mudville

 

mc 19.8

mc 10.7

mc 17.3

mc 832

mc 350

miscellany

trial results less than expected. outrageous pricing

mc 438 trial results less than expected

13x sales 50x trail insiders bailing

 

the weights

                     the index weights. banks at 45% of the index. offshore borrowing requires onshore                                     hedging of equity and currency risk as package. just starting

word on the street

mc 415

mc 19

mc 17

mc 49

 

bouncing baby bios

mc 210

mc 197

 

malaise

leading indicators of economic malaise on the horizon

mc 52

mc 49

mc 459

 

next legs

mc 1.07

mc 9.6

mc 11.4

mc 50

 

rates and gates

First Published November 2021

Rates and Gates

Lurking in the flattening yield curve are mounds of monopoly money guided by the inalienable right to stupidity. Central banks around the world have printed enough specie that Arizona real estate was bought wholesale by bots with presumably human lenders and sellers. Entire zip codes were taken down that could only inspire awe at the creativity thirteen years after Lehman.

The model assumed that interest rates were low and would remain low long enough for money to be available for the next buyer in asset flips for the machine thinking ages. The model cast zero probability that the Fed would reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet, that inflation existed, and that interest rates would rise. Other central banks challenged by real inflation and housing prices at 400 year highs demurred.

The banks of Australia and Canada stopped making promises they could not keep. The buyers of short term credit sold first and relocated to the long end of the yield curve. Mortgage rates spiked and the bot decided Arizona real estate whould be sold at 10% less than it was bought which makes perfect sense somewhere but funds stuffed with specie will be the next gated community keeping residents in and intelligent life forms out.

The good news is that markets are supposed to act this way. Veto the last bad idea in hopes of the next one.

From Lehman to Zillow. Rates to gates. The entertainment has just begun

headwinds

inverted yield curve. expect gdp -2%. head winds

mc 1 92x trail

mc 15.8 47 x fwd

mc 41 40 x trail

 

Red Dragon

Griner for Bout. Zi in Saudi. Accounting board audits disclosed in advance to KPMG auditors. The Red Dragon rocks.

mc 4.12

mc 291

mc 415

mc 757

tide turns

 

short oil gas prodn

short chips

short biotech

short natural gas

refining goes offer

mc 11.5

mc 49.96

mc 4.55