kold dust drip

 hit the screens two weeks ago.

short oil gas ep

short gold miners

short natural gas

revoca

The balance sheet houses a $100 million convertible note from a related party and bank financing the maturity of which has been extended. The elevated thinking was a public offer and a new convert to pay off the related party with a whimsical dilution the market greeted by passing gas in a closed room. The minds have changed with prices 50% lower. 

Insiders hit the 50 bid in December. 

Convertible note - related party

100,638

mc 294

quirks

internet retail rehab

mc 1.35 sf 21

mc 10

mc 699 germany

mc 5.7 sf 30

 

egalitarian squeeze

short floats. so far down it looks like up. peaks and troughs. 

 

mc 392 sf 53 bankruptcy 

mc 584 sf 30

mc 1.93 sf 35

mc 5.4 sf 35 insiders loading

mc 100 sf 28 take it private with a premium

biosqueeze

 short floats higher on volume

mc 724 sf 31

mc 227 sf 91

mc 337 sf 16

mc 411 sf 17

mc 832 sf 21

mc 2.38 sf 22

bio tide

 bioflows

the small packages

mc 874

mc 94

mc 87

Mr Grantham

Mr Grantham says the folly of bubbles decline to and remain below trend.

Historic examples replete with chicanery that liberated 150 million from consanguinous funds for the promise of a pill for Covid with neither a molecule nor a proven delivery system through the gastric tract are possible in bubbles.

Japanese rice to the South China Sea of 5 centuries ago bubbles burst with the flames confined to local exchanges not connected at the speed of light today that promises to share the fast twich pain in underfunded retirement accounts.

Mr Grantham has a trend target for the SP 500. 2500. With prices to remain below trend for a decade.

He reminds that the Greenspan put saved Amazon in 2000 which declined 90% to extinction level or twice the decline of the index until the Fed coursed money into the bilge of the titanic.

The Greenspan put was funded by a Fed that could comfortably apply ink to specie. 22 years later the inkwell is dry and the specie is being returned to coffers.

The cost of government money is under the rate of inflation and 4.5% below where it should be.

A dollar of earnings at 2% may well be worth a risk of 50 times or one divided by the rate of interest. A dollar of earnings at 5% would be worth a risk of 20 times or 60% lower squarely to Mr Granthams number with the presumption that there are in fact earnings.

Then there is Japan tethered to a 42 year denial from nikkei 40 000 in 1985 and beans counted by discretion to the 25 000 of today. To maintain the dignity of the enterprise the Japanese Government now owns 70% of its equity market with housewives and the government pension fund holding the balance. There appears not to be a bag holder but a passing of the bag until the deck chairs are re arranged on the battleships the Japanese do not have today.

In the 90s volatility was captured by the suicide index for Japanese executives. Sepuku being the honor. In 2020 a larcenous foreign CEO was spirited out of Japan in a tuba box which may well be worth more than the value of the index.

Select any equity index, cut it in half, set the bid, and thank Mr Grantham.

machine thinking

Lurking in the yield curve were mounds of monopoly money guided by the inalienable right to stupidity.

The Fed printed enough specie that Arizona real estate was bought wholesale decided by an AI bot with presumably human lenders and sellers. Entire zip codes were taken down that could only inspire awe at the creativity thirteen years after Lehman.

The model assumed that interest rates were low and would remain so long enough for money to be available to the next buyer in a flip for the machine thinking ages.
The model cast zero probability that the Fed would stop buying bonds at 120 billion a month despite the Fed saying so.

Other central banks challenged by real inflation and housing prices at 400 year highs demurred. The banks of Australia and Canada stopped making promises they could not keep. The buyers of short term credit sold first and relocated.

Mortgage rates spiked and the AI bot decided that Arizona real estate should be sold at 10% less than it was bought which makes perfect sense somewhere but funds stuffed with specie will be the next gated community keeping residents in and intelligent life forms out.

The good news is that markets are supposed to act this way. Veto the last bad
idea in hopes of the next one.

From Lehman to Zillow. To rates and gates.

Six months later the Fed is keeping its oath to raise rates faster than expected while the Bank of Japan clings to the zero bound falling on its currency, the ECB pledging to locate any Bank in Verona willing to receive continued largesse, mortgage rates crest 6%, and the market is in the denial that the faster the Fed can raise rates to force a recession the faster it will have to print money, again, as the specie of last resort.

So. Buy em from the insiders willing to sell em?

mc 5.87, ps .7

hitting bids

 insiders hitting bids. energy patch plus one

mc 34 ps 6

mc 3.04 ps 6

mc 1.87

mc 4.88 ps 8

mc 3.89 ps 6 pe 60 insiders litigation unpaid receivables kenya honduras 

impervious middies

mc 413 chinese beauty

mc 223 thermal coal

mc 760 gout

mc 172 the bankruptcy boom

 

the banks

in theory higher interest rates lead to a decline in the rate of credit growth. financials at 40% of the index

mc 100 bn 24x egs

mc 60 bn 20x egs

mc 50 bn 14x egs

18x egs 2.6x book 60% weight:hdfc, icici, sbin

commodity patch

 combination of illiquid bids, government regs, and internal combustion. 50% off the highs

mc 11 bn

mc 9bn

mc 3

mc 1.6

breakaway devs

 breakaway devs

big cap concentration

40% of the index

the belle of the ball

tech

pharm

commodites

malleable

the informed speculation that energy prices are malleable from here evidenced by etf fund flows

 a billion out, 20% lower, gics energy index

ends up here

here

and tangentially here