twinkles

 

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steel

market caps vary but the theme is the same. war is good for steel. 

shakers

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four for the road

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chips and dips turning

 

rolling

 business models going bump in the night

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mc 727 sf 23

mc 95 funded warrants at .8

mac 88 wagon trains for commodities

tipperary

The math and timing intrigue. Losses of $530 million on $170 million in revenue. The model loses three dollars for every dollar of revenue. 

Not unusual for the digital business model that raises equity to pay for customers and suppliers at a rate greater than can be recovered from revenues or advertisement until the model can be sold through a public listing with the magic of the multiple.  

The usual private equity suspects have invested $5 billion in the model starting with a seed funding round of $2 million in 2010 and the last being November 2021. 

The ambition is to sell $1.2 billion to the public with the proposition that the model is worth $30 billion, or 30 times one year's worth of revenue. 

There are listed business models that provide metrics.

                    revenue        loss            market cap        market/revenue

Grab             .787 bn                            14bn                    18

Lyft              3.00 bn        -1.00bn        13bn                     4

Dash             5.00bn         -.500bn        33bn                     7

Uber            17.00bn        -.500bn        64bn                      4

The direct competitor that shares half the market has five times the revenue with a listed market cap of $14 billion or 18 times revenue. The model listed at $60 billion in 2021. Shareholders that purchased at the listing are now seventy-five percent less well off.

Other more mature business models that are listed have $25 billion in revenue, $2 billion in losses, and trade on average at 5 times revenue.

Thinking that a value of thirty times revenue at a fraction of market share with competition that will chase the zero bound of pricing may not age well.

The competitor and the template. Better to be a buyer or seller?

 

bouncing bios

 

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mc 890 sf 15 equity carve out

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perched

 an eclection of musing passed that are perched into gamma of a $3.5 trillion options expiration

mc 605 100 mm shares outstanding 65 million floating 15 million short. 

mc 335 auto parts deals that go boom in the night

mc 239 sf 16 112 mm shares outstanding 99 floating 16 mm short

mc 2.32 257 mm shares outstanding 207 mm floating 50 mm short

mc 3.57 sf 30 407 mm shares outstanding 225 mm floating 70 mm short

mc 207 sf 13 53 mm shares outstanding 50 mm floating 5 mm short

mc 1.17 232mm shares outstanding 199 mm floating

mc 459 250 mm shares outstanding 136 floating 9 mm short insiders loading

the middle kingdom

 Analyze this.  Analyze that.  Aything China

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radar

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate and confirmed that it will reduce the rate of buying bonds. Orderly chaos in a market response with short-term interest rates going up more than long-term interest rates or an inversion of the yield curve because actors believe the Fed is late in raising rates, will create a recession and will have no choice but to lower rates in two years.  In the world of point and click attention span the collective brain housing groups reached this conclusion in minutes.

Nevertheless, there are business models floating under the radar 

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bids in the bush

 Shorts covering in business models that can

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mc 1.9 sf 25 maybe not the model but the symbol is neat

mc 7.5 and sf 13 and why not

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