trenchers

 swing trade the ranges with stops. shorts cover by appointment en masse. 

room to run

mc 927 shorts covering

mc 232 ev

mc 3.04 ev

mc 4.4 ev

 

5 waves down

Take the 8% decline from the highs fitted into a conservative wave pattern mixed a little gumbo and the targets look something like this

chip rip

 No joy in semi anything, Insiders selling with abandon. Past is not prologue in the forward guidance

chipped

 chip business models with insiders selling at appreciably higher prices into earnings

mc 17.57

mc 57

mc 4.4

mc 7.7

mc 42

in play

In the wreckage of the first wave there are business models three standard deviations away from the mean, shareholders that will invite management to take a long walk off a short pier, and will dress the cadaver for the next cotillion. Presumably invitations have been sent for a transaction that will take place in the still of the night

mc 8.69 70% under the 200 day shareholders upset

mc 746 pe at one-third insiders with enough to care and the brand is the brand

mc 157 and enough skin to care trading under book and a fraction of sales

mean median mode

as simple green line below the red line. ten-week moving average under the twenty-one week. fade the bids if they show. pricing made by capital from outside the country hostage to rates and gates.

40% of the index weight

 

the money and who gets its

Opposing counsel claimed moral high ground for their clients before Judge Barefoot Sanders who sensed his lunch would be delayed ended the act observing that the reason counsel was before the bench was about money and who gets it.

The throbbing brains at Goldman put the math in a picture of the money running out of the system

Three month LIBOR an index originated in 1969 credited to a creative Greek banker to syndicate a $80 million loan by Manufacturers Hanover for the Shah of Iran to fly his favorite lunch from Paris daily averaged 5% before Lehman 2008 and is tethered to zero in the Oz of global central bank printing of specie which will presumably reverse to something approximating the rate of inflation as the Fed does as Goldman says.

Looks like 4% for the US ten year from 1.8% today

The average earnings multiple of the SP has been 14. The multiple has expanded three standard deviations above its mean on four occasions since 1980. The first was before the 1987 crash, the second before the 2000 internet bubble, the third before and after Lehman 2008, and now it is 50% it is five-year average.

The week ahead promises earnings from Microsoft, Intel, Apple, and Tesla sandwiched around the January Federal Reserve meeting. 

GDP France mc 2.687 trillion

GDP Peru mc 211

GDP Brazil mc 2.2 trillion

GDP Indonesia mc $1 trillion

 

denouement

Not as compelling as the peace between the Montagues and Capulets the denouement of business models perched on the prayer that trees will grow to the sky fast enough to salvage underfunded pension obligations is nigh.

That business models have been valued at more than ten times revenue while insiders abandon ship with reckless abandon is a question for behavioral psychology. 

Mr Grantham has a view that past is prologue two decades out from the implosion of 2000 and five centuries removed from tulips.  Mr Grantham reminds that Amazon traded from 95 to 7 between 1999 and 2001. Is there any reason that a reversal of percentage change should be different this time ?

The path is known.

The trajectory is welcome for inverted trend trading. The optimism of new high price breakouts replaced with new low price breakouts and instruments that benefit from price declines have multiplied since 2000. The starting point is a saunter through the underlying business models valued with hydrogen approaching a flame. The psychology of selling rallies for capital gain replaces buying dips swimming with the tide as it rolls out.

To wit

GDP of Portugal mc 211 ps 10

mc 23 ps 11

GDP of Ecuador mc 100 ps 17

GDP Morocco mc 106 ps 25 fulfillment contracts cancelled

bathwater

 $350 million tagged and bagged by insiders in one week. Not sure what the destination might be for the loot. Nevertheless, selling is selling. The flurry of form 4s

GDP of Italy 1.83 trillion, pick your multiple

a la carte

An a la carte menu of business models captured in indices layered with derivatives offering three times the daily price movement with gravitational pull.

The odds are simply irresistable.

 trust the bank of montreal to create an index with a fancy name, leverage it, invert it, and fund it with medium-term notes on their balance sheet. intriguing nevertheless

less sexy but a 2x inverse floater of the brand name exploration and drilling index

interest rates up real estate equities headed south. a fancy msci index

chips without dips. a long way to go and a short time to get there